My spreadsheet model, which accounted for historical cloudiness in February (along with the length of day and sun angle and other factors) predicted 1.105 MWh. I actually generated 1.2 MWh, about 9% above my estimate. That's two consecutive months I've beat my estimates, which is a great thing... if I was "barely break even" at my conservative estimates, everything better than that is money in my pocket.
The savings prediction at the beginning of the month was $57.77. Actual savings off my bill this month was $62.72. Althogh I'm still net negative due to the time of the year and lower rates (thus reduced "savings"), I'm still looking good to be net positive at the end of summer!
February Costs:
Loan payment: $229.16
February Savings:
Reduced electric bill (1.20MWh * $0.05227) = $62.72
Tax savings from deductible interest: $42.03
Running total of costs: $787.48
Running total of savings: $246.18
A prediction for March:
Reduced electric bill (5.44 * 31 * 10 = 1.688 MWh) = $88.24
Tax savings from deductible interest: $41.90